基于证据推理的工程项目投标风险决策方法

针对工程项目投标决策中涉及处理大量不确定性和未知信息问题,从业主情况、自身情况、项目情况、竞争对手情况以及项目所在地的社会环境状况5个角度分析了工程投标风险决策应考虑的主要因素,建立工程项目投标风险综合评价体系。在此基础上,提出了基于D-S证据推理的工程项目投标风险方法,介绍了具体的决策过程及风险评价算法的步骤。算例验证了该方法在工程项目投标风险评价领域的可行性、有效性和实用性。

Evidence reasoning-based bidding risk evaluation method for engineering projects

In consideration of the fact that the decision-making for bidding in engineering projects involves a great deal of uncertainty and unknown information,some main factors which should be considered in decision-making for bidding were discussed from some aspects,such as the states of owners,bidders and rivals,the project situation,and the social environment of the projects,and a comprehensive evaluation system for bidding risk was established.Then, the D-S evidence reasoning-based method and its algorithm for bidding risk evaluation were proposed,and the feasibility,effectiveness,and applicability of the algorithm in bidding risk evaluation of engineering projects were verified by case study.