堆积层边坡表层位移矢量角及其在稳定性预测中的作用与意义

根据边坡不同稳定性的位移矢量角的形成机制以及对新滩边坡实际资料的分析，发现堆积层边坡的表层位移矢量角是描述和评价边坡整体稳定性的基本参数之一。它有明确的物理意义与预测预报标准，且受局部或随机因素影响较小，同时反映了边坡的变形受力条件与整体稳定性状态，在滑坡预测预报中有着位移或位移速率不可替代的作用。在此基础上，重点对边坡塑性滑移阶段的位移矢量角及其与稳定性的关系进行了系统的分析。运用数理统计趋势位移分析原理建立了边坡位移矢量角和位移速率双参数统计预测预报判据，克服了传统位移时序分析法单一参数预测理论的不足，并运用新滩边坡F系列监控点实际资料进行了双参数的后验稳定性验算与判别。预测结果与边坡的实际失稳时间与规律相吻合，说明该理论判据具有一定的精度和实用性。

DISPLACEMENT VECTOR ANGLE OF COLLUVIAL SLOPE AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE

Based on interpretation of the monitoring data of actual displacement which resulted from the landslides in Xintan,it is shown that the stability of whole homogeneous colluvial slope is closely correlated with two parameters,velocity of surface displacement and angle of surface vector. The stability trend can be described and evaluated by both the displacement velocity and the vector angle. The displacement vector angle,especially,for which there is no substitute,is an important parameter serving as an explicit criterion for the stability of slope,and hence it is significant for prediction of landslides. So systematical space-time analysis is made on the features of vector angles of surface displacement. From this analysis,the distribution laws of space-time and the characteristics of the displacement vector angles are deduced. On the basis of these results and using the principles of statistics,thd double-parameter criterion for forecasting the stability of the colluvial slopes is established. According to the double-parameter criterion,calculation and evaluation of stability are made on Xintan slope by monitoring data on F-series of points on the slope. The prediction results are coincided with the actual time and the laws of the landslide,which demonstrates that the double-parameter criterion is of satisfactory precision and practicality in prediction of landslides.