沈阳市汛期降水量变化趋势分析

近30a以来,年来沈阳市汛期降水总体上一直偏少,从近62a的降水资料分析汛期各月的降水,其变化趋势可以看出：整体降水量的偏少是由于20世纪80年代中期以后主汛期7-8月份的降水减少所致,并且这种变化趋势与我国气候的冷暖周期、拉马德雷冷暖位相有密切的联系。2010年前后正是拉马德雷冷暖位相、我国气候冷暖周期交替的过渡阶段,随着全球气候周期性的变化,这种汛期降水偏少的趋势是否已经悄然开始逆转还有待于今后降水数据的统计分析,而降水趋势变化的预测、研究可为全面做好防汛工作提供重要的参考依据。

Variation Trend Analysis of Flood Season Precipitation in Shenyang City

Since the last 30 years, the overall precipitation in flood season in Shenyang city has been less. Analyzing monthly precipitation in flood season precipitation data from nearly 62 years, its change trend can be seen. The overall precipitation is less in the middle of the main 7-8 month flood season since twentieth Century 80＇ s. And precipitation decrease is closely related to the heating cycle, La Madeley cold-warm phase and climate cycle alternating transition stage in China. It is in La Madeley cold-warm phase and climate cycle alternating transition stage around 2010 in China. With global climate change periodically, if the flood season rainfall trend already quietly begun to reverse, it is still to be further analyzed by the statistical data. However, research on prediction of precipitation trends can provides an important reference for the comprehensive flood control and work.