长江堤防安全评价的理论方法和实现策略

对长江堤防安全评价的理论与方法进行了较为系统的阐述。重点论述了长江中下游堤防的特点和破坏机理，分析了与堤防安全有关的基本因素；针对堤防安全评价的层次性和动态性等特点，初步建立了长江中下游堤防安全评价的理论框架，提出了堤防安全评价的流程与方法。

On the Theory, Methodology and the Realization Strategy of Safety Assessment of the Yangtze Dikes

This paper presents a study on the theory and methodology of safety assessment of Yangtze dike. The main topics discussed and the conclusions of the study are as follows:(1) The function and makeup of Yangtze dike are summarized systemically and status and incipient fault of the dikes are discussed.(2) The frame of safety assessment of Yangtze dike is proposed, consisting of three categories of safety assessment (namely, risk analysis, conventional mechanical evaluation,and comprehensive evaluation).(3) The main factors affecting safety of Yangtze dike are discussed systematically. Index system and assessment methods are proposed. On the basis of AHP (The Analytic Hierarchy Process) with fuzzy theory, a new method for comprehensive assessment of Yangtze dike is put forward.(4) A software with programming language Delphi for the safety assessment of Yangtze dike is developed and automation and visualization for the assessment of dikes can be realized.