基于Monte-Carlo方法的重建工程施工导流风险分析

施工导流挡水建筑物的设计必须考虑施工洪水过程和导流建筑物泄流能力,确定上游设计水位与上游围堰高程,并对上游围堰高程及上游设计水位之间的关系进行分析,判断围堰是否满足度汛要求。而针对重建工程利用原大坝作为上游围堰进行挡水的情况,其导流风险分析不同于新建工程,这种导流方式存在自身的特殊性。针对此类工程,在分析其施工导流风险时,需要在原有的基于新建工程导流围堰风险分析方法的基础上加以改进。针对重建工程利用原坝导流的特殊性,分析相关的影响因素,采用Monte-Carlo方法模拟施工洪水入库和导流建筑物泄流等过程,最终确定施工导流系统的风险率。

The Reconstruction of Construction Diversion Risk Analysis Based on Monte -Carlo Method

Construction diversion water retaining structures must be designed to consider the con- struction process and the flood discharge capacity of diversion structures. To determine the upstream water level and the upstream cofferdam elevation, and analyzes the relationship between the upstream cofferdam elevation and the upstream water level, then determine whether the cofferdam meet flood requirements. For reconstruction using the original dam as the upstream cofferdam retaining, the di- version risk analysis is different from the new project, this way of diversion has its particularity. For this project, in the analysis of its construction diversion risk, require new construction based on the original diversion cofferdam on the basis of risk analysis methods to be improved. In this paper, con- sider to the particularity of the reconstruction who using the original dam diversion, analysis of rele- vant factors, Using Monte- Carlo method to simulate the flood storage and diversion discharge process, eventually determine the risk of construction diversion system.