对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。

Reflections on China's Wind Power Development Strategy

The growth of China s wind power industry is very fast.The country s installed wind power generating capacity is expected to reach 3500×10^4kW by 2010 and 1.5×10^8kW by 2020.IEA has forecast that the world will still rely on fossil fuels to meet its energy demand by 2030 and that the share of fossil fuels in the world s energy mix will drop to 80.4% from 80.8% in 2006.According to IEA s forecast,by 2030 fossil fuels will remain the dominant fuel in the world s power generation,whose share will drop to 73% from 74% in 2006.In China,conventional fossil fuels will continue to dominate the country＇s energy mix by 2050. Therefore,it is unadvisable to blindly pursue the optimization of energy and power mix in developing renewable and new energy.It is true that China should rely on nuclear power and new energy sources to generate electricity in the future ;but further study is needed into ods before making decisions on whether nuclear power the technical and economic viability of these methor other energy sources such as wind energy,solar energy or biomass energy should be the country＇s main power source.The main problems in developing wind power currently in China is that the minimum standard for wind power technology is too low,technical routes are inappropriate and that many of wind power technologies imported by the country are outdated.To promote the healthy growth of the wind power industry ,China must accelerate the research on the utilization of wind power,including energy storage and direct use.