分布式水文模型在短期水文预报中应用的可行性探讨

针对目前基于物理机制的分布式水文模型在短期水文预报业务中尚未推广应用的事实,论证了分布式水文模型在短期水文预报中的可行性.以第二类分布式水文模型SWAT为例,分析了水文过程的模拟原理、方法和基本步骤,提出了其在短期水文预报中应用所需的降水预报技术、降水数据的空间展布技术、“3S”技术、流域坡面离散技术、对人工侧支水循环的处理技术等关键技术,并指出了分布式水文模型应用于短期水文预报时存在输入资料不足、模型自身缺陷、计算精度和效率的权衡等局限性和不足,提出需要进一步加强水循环过程的机理研究,加强与气象模型的耦合研究及对“3S”技术的应用研究.

Feasibility analysis of the application of the distributed hydrological model in the short-term hydrological forecast

In view of the fact that the distributed hydrological model based on physical mechanism has not been popularized in the short-term hydrological forecast, its feasibility of the application in the short-term hydrological forecast is demonstrated in detail. Taking one of the distributed hydrological models Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） as an example, this paper presents its principles, methods and basic steps of the hydrological processes simulation, and discusses the application of distributed hydrological mod- el in the short-term hydrological forecast in connection with key techniques, for example, the precipitation forecast techniques, the spatial distribution techniques of precipitation data, the GIS, RS and GPS tech- niques, the slope discretization techniques of a watershed, and the processing techniques of man-made wa- ter cycles. Then difficulties and disadvantages are summarized when it is used in the short-term hydrologi- cal forecast, such as the insufficient input data, the deficiency of the model itself, the tradeoff of model calculation efficiency and accuracy. Finally, it is proposed that it is necessary to strengthen the mechanism research of the water cycle and the research on the coupled meteorological model and ＂3S＂ technology.