面向双保证率的水库供水能力优化计算方法研究

随着城市化进程的推进和生态文明理念的深入，水库供水任务日趋复杂，涵盖城镇供水、农业灌溉、生态保障多类目标，分析水库多目标供水能力对于工程的功能调整等决策十分必要。本文综合考虑水库供水目标的竞争性与保证率差异性，提出面向双保证率的水库供水能力双层优化计算方法，通过调度线控制和城镇供水能力区间迭代实现满足不同保证率的多目标供水能力计算。外层基于粒子群算法以城镇供水能力最大为目标对水库调度线进行优化，协调不同用户的供水关系；内层在给定规则下通过迭代计算满足双保证率要求的城镇供水能力。通过内外层嵌套计算实现对水库调度规则和供水能力的同步优化。以三亚市赤田水库为实例进行研究，在城镇供水保证率为95%、农业灌溉保证率为90%时，通过优化调度规则得出水库总供水能力为9400万m~3。设置不同农业保证率和农业需水情景作分析对比，二者均对城镇供水能力有影响，总供水能力随农业保证率降低而提高。分析表明，双层优化计算方法可以实现对调度线的优化，得出满足城镇、农业双保证率要求的供水能力，且计算方法收敛稳定性较高，优化生成的调度线年内分布合理，可为水库多目标供水能力的计算和相关决策提供参考。

Research on optimization calculation method of reservoir water supply capacity for double reliability

Objective of reservoirs water supply becomes more complex, covering urban water supply, agricultural irrigation and ecological flow, along with higher urbanization and higher recognition of ecological civilization. It is necessary to analyze multi-objective water supply capacity of reservoir for the decision-making of function adjustment. In this paper, a double-layer optimization calculation method of reservoir water supply capacity under double reliability of water supply is proposed, considering the competition and different reliability requirements of water supply targets. The multi-objective water supply capacity calculation is realized to meet different reliability requirements, through regulation rule control and urban water supply capacity interval iteration. In the outer layer, the operation line is optimized to maximize the urban water supply capacity and coordinate different users'' relations based on particle swarm optimization algorithm. In the inner layer, the urban water supply capacity satisfying the requirements of double reliability is calculated by iteration under given rules. The reservoir regulation rule and water supply capacity are simultaneously optimized through the nested calculation of inner and outer layers. The methodology was applied in Chitian Reservoir of Sanya city. The total water supply capacity is 94 million m³ under optimized regulation rule, when the reliability of urban water supply is 95% and the agriculture is 90%. Different scenarios with changing agricultural reliability and agricultural water demand were compared and analyzed. The results suggest both the agricultural demand and its requirements of reliability impact urban water supply capacity. When reliability of agricultural water supply decreases, the total water supply capacity increases gradually. The research shows that the double-layer nested optimization calculation method is able to realize the optimization of operation line, and the result of water supply capacity could meet the requirements of urban and agricultural reliability. It''s also verified that the method possesses attributes of reliable and stable convergence, and the monthly distribution of optimized regulation rule is fitting the attributes of hydrograph and process of agricultural water demand. It can be a reference for calculation of multi-objective water supply capacity of reservoirs and relevant decision-making.