对水布垭电站不预留防洪库容方案的定量分析

群库联调后，下游流域的防洪态势将发生变化。长江三峡工程及清江隔河岩工程完建后，荆江河段的防洪标准已很高，且保险系数很大，再在水布垭水库预留防洪库容所起的作用不大，而取消的５亿ｍ３防洪库容，每年可增发电量０．４６亿ｋＷ·ｈ，增加保证出力４．１万ｋＷ，每年增加收益５０００万元左右（还未考虑梯级效益）。因此，水布垭电站不预留防洪库容更经济、合理。

Quantatitive analysis on canceling forward preserved flood control storage for Shuibuya Hydropower Station

When the reservoir group is jointly dispatched,the situation of flood control in the downstream of the basin will be changed.After the completion of the Three Gorges Project in Yangtze River and the Geheyan Hydropower Station in Qingjiang River,the flood control standard in the Jingjiang river reach will be high and its insurance coefficient is also very high.The forward preserved flood control storage of Shuibuya Reservoir could produce a little effect.If the forward preserved flood control storage of 500 million m 3 is canceled,it could increase the power generation of 46 million kWh/year,the firm output of 41 thousand kW/year and the income of about 50 million RMB/year (not including the cascade benefit).Therefore,no forward preserved storage for flood control in Shuibuya Hydropower Station will be more economic and rational.