基于模糊理论的多属性航空安全风险评估

在对航空安全风险因素从重要度、危害度、难检度和可能度4维属性划分的基础上,利用模糊理论、欧几里得距离公式和FMECA原理,建立了多属性风险因素的风险评估模型。通过专家问卷和对航空安全风险因素辨识,利用该模型对航空安全风险进行了评估,得到了各项风险因素的关键性指数排序;并对该风险评估模型进行了敏感度分析。该模型结构简单,意义明确,可直接用来指导安全管理工作。

Multi-attribute Aviation Safty Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Theory

On the basis of dividing aviation safety risk factor from importance,severity,detection and possibility four-dimensional degree attributes,making use of Fuzzy theory,Euclidean distance formula and principles of FMECA,Multi-attribute risk factors assessment model is established.Through the expert questionnaire,on the basis of identification of aviation safety risk factors,using this model,the key exponent index ranking of all risk factors are calculated.Finally risk assessment model for the sensitivity analysis is given.The proposed model is in easy structure,and it can be directly used for safety-managing work.