基于突变理论的尾矿库安全评价

尾矿库安全评价是一个复杂的系统问题，需综合考虑诸多因素。目前运用的各种安全评价方法从不同的角度对尾矿库安全问题进行研究，但都未能综合地判别尾矿库的安全状况。基于突变理论，利用初始模糊隶属函数和突变级数，将突变理论与模糊分析结合起来，对尾矿库整体进行多层目标分解，然后根据归一公式进行计算，得出尾矿库安全总突变级数值，经过变换后判断出尾矿库的安全度。通过工程实例表明，基于突变理论的尾矿库综合评价模型能准确地评判出尾矿库的安全状况。

Safety Assessment of Tailing Pond Based on Catastrophe Theory

The safety evaluation of the tailing pond is a complex system, hence, many factors should be considered. The current methods of safety evaluation are used to study the tailing pond safety from different angles. But these studies failed to comprehensively distinguish the security situation of tailing pond. Based on the revolutionary theory, this paper uses initial fuzzy membership function and mutation series and combines the revolutionary theory and fuzzy analysis to resolve the multiple layers of target of the whole tailing pond, and then the ultimate catastrophe function can be obtained through quantitative computing by the normalization formula. The safety level of the tailing pond can be determined by transferring the ultimate catastrophe function. The engineering example indicates that the comprehensive evaluation model based on catastrophe theory can accurately judge the security situation of tailing pond.