| 基于集对分析的水资源相似预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 金菊良,魏一鸣,王文圣. 基于集对分析的水资源相似预测模型[J]. 水力发电学报, 2009, 28(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 金菊良 魏一鸣 王文圣 |
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| 作者单位： | 金菊良,JIN Juliang(合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,合肥,230009);魏一鸣,WEI Yiming(中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100080);王文圣,WANG Wensheng(四川大学水利水电学院,成都,610065) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家科技支撑计划重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 准确预测水资源的丰枯变化可为水安全管理提供重要的科学依据.针对水资源过程的自相依性不强、水资源与其影响因子之间呈复杂的非线性关系这一特点,为避免用参数统计预测模型在确定和求解显式数学函数模型过程中所带来的不确定性问题,提出了用集对分析检验和互相关系数统计假设检验相结合识别影响水资源变化的主要物理因子,用集对分析方法从同、异、反三方面定量刻画水资源历史样本之间的相似性,然后用多个最相似的历史样本的水资源加权平均值作为当前水资源的预测值,进而建立了基于集对分析的水资源相似预测模型(SPA-SF).研究结果说明:用SPA-SF预测水资源的丰枯变化,物理概念清晰,计算直观,预测精度较高;这套SPA-SF建模方案简便有效,预测技术完备,在历史样本丰富、代表性高的水文时间序列预测中具有应用价值.
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| 关 键 词： | 水利管理 水资源相似预测 集对分析 可变模糊集 |
Set pair analysis based on similarity forecast model of water resources |
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| JIN Juliang,WEI Yiming,WANG Wensheng. Set pair analysis based on similarity forecast model of water resources[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2009, 28(1) |
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| Authors: | JIN Juliang WEI Yiming WANG Wensheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Civil Engineering;Hefei University of Technology;Hefei 230009;2.Institute of Policy and Management;Chinese Academy of Sciences;Beijing 100080;3.School of Hydraulic Engineering;Sichuan University;Chengdu 610065 |
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| Abstract: | Exact forecast of abundant and insufficient change of water resources can be used for the important scientific basis of water security management.In order to deal with weak dependence of water resources process and complex relation between water resources process and its influencing factors,the uncertainty problems are avoided during the process of selecting and resolving the obvious mathematics functions with parametric statistics prediction methods,both set pair analysis and statistic test of correlation ... |
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| Keywords: | water conservancy management similarity forecast of water resources set pair analysis variable fuzzy set |
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