CEPT Long Term Telecommunications Studies

The CEPT Long Term Studies Ad Hoc Working Group was formed in March 1971. Its responsibility is primarily with the period between 10 and 30 years hence. During 1971 and 1972, its activities were mainly for "Project 20" (carried out by CEPT for COST). This project had three phases: an assessment of the amount and types of telecommunications services likely to be provided up to 1985 (including new services), an assessment of the technological implications, and an identification of possible areas where cooperative research and development proposals could be formulated. As a result of this work, a short list of 13 topics for possible collaborative research and development studies by administrations was drawn up. Phase 1 of Project 20 had indicated extremely wide variations between administrations in their forecasts for new services. The recent activities of the Working Group have therefore concentrated upon the estimation of long term demand for telecommunications services. A set of studies are in hand (each led by one administration) on the following subjects: the long term growth of telephone service, external factors likely to influence long term demand for telecommunications, possibilities for new telecommunications services arising from technological developments, the application of advanced telecommunications services in the field of education, and the potential of telecommunications as a substitute for face-face-to-face business meetings. Each of these studies is described and discussed.