| 产量递减的时序分析法预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王建俊,张红玲,罗二辉.产量递减的时序分析法预测[J].重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版),2010,12(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王建俊 张红玲 罗二辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学(北京)石油工程教育部重点实验室,北京,102249;中国地质大学,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 首次运用时间序列分析的基本理论和方法,以大港油田港东东区块递减期产油量数据为例,建立该区块产量递减的自回归AR(3)模型,用最小二乘法进行参数估计。通过检验模型效果,相对误差较小。
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| 关 键 词： | 产量递减 时间序列 时序模型 最小二乘法 |
Prediction of Time Series Analysis with Production Decline |
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| WANG Jian-jun,ZHANG Hong-ling,LUO Er-hui.Prediction of Time Series Analysis with Production Decline[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2010,12(6). |
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| Authors: | WANG Jian-jun ZHANG Hong-ling LUO Er-hui |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Jian-jun1 ZHANG Hong-ling1 LUO Er-hui2 (1.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,2.China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,for the first time,according to the fundamental theory and approach of the time series analysis,taking east district of Gangdong in Dagang oilfield as an example,the autoregression decline model of this block is established as AR(3).Then use the least square method to estimate the parameters. And the relative error of the model verification is small,which indicates that the use of time series analysis to predict the production decline is feasible and effective. |
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| Keywords: | production decline time series time series model least square method |
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