我国南海天然气开发前景展望

截止到2007年底，我国南海探明天然气地质储量已达到3 235×10⁸ m³，天然气年产量为60×10⁸ m³，占我国海上天然气总产量的88%。在该区的勘探开发实践证实：①我国南海具有丰富的天然气资源；②南海是我国海上最重要天然气生产基地；③深水天然气勘探所获得的重大突破，使得南海天然气勘探开发具备了进一步发展的广阔前景。但是，南海天然气开发也面临着许多挑战：自然环境条件恶劣，勘探开发投资大、成本高，深水勘探开发经验不足，存在海域争端等。对此，应采取以下措施：①继续坚持自营与合作并举，加快南海天然气勘探开发步伐；②以开发荔湾3-1气田为突破口，全面掌握深水勘探开发技术；③建立自己的深水研发和装备队伍；④努力推动南海争议区的共同开发工作进程。结论认为：南中国海蕴藏着丰富的油气资源，有望建成大型天然气生产基地，如果战略目标明确、规划落实、勘探开发资金到位，2020年前后南海有望形成400×10⁸～500×10⁸ m³的天然气年产能力。

Outlook for natural gas development in the South China Sea

By the end of 2007, the explored natural gas in the South China Sea has reached up to 323.5 bcm and the annual natural gas production is 6 bcm, accounting for 88% of the total offshore gas production in China. Field experiences have shown that abundant natural gas resource has already been found in the South China Sea and this area had been regarded as the most important base of natural gas production in China. A big breakthrough in deep sea exploration for natural gas has made it possible for oil and gas operators to explore and develop more gas from the South China Sea. However, due to harsh environment here, inevitably high cost in exploration and development will result in high risk for oil and gas operators, not even to mention other difficulties like being lack of experiences in deep sea exploration and development and dispute on some sea area with neighboring countries. Therefore, this paper put forward some advices as follows: a. to speed up the pace of natural gas exploration and development in the South China Sea by self operating and cooperating with foreign countries; b. to have a comprehensive grasp of the deep sea technology on natural gas exploration and development starting from the development of the gas field Liwan 3-1; c. to be well equipped with R &; D stuff and equipments; d. to make efforts to jointly develop the disputing sea areas. At last, this paper concluded that the annual natural gas production capacity will be up to 40~50 bcm in the South China Sea if strategic targets are clear cut and both the implementation of the plan and the projects fund are ensured as well.