基于未确知有理数的工程项目缓冲区的确定

利用乐观时间制定项目进度计划,对任务链各任务持续时间的区间数进行未确知量化,利用未确知有理数的加法运算求得进度计划的未确知完成期及其对应的完工可信度和累积可信度,采用累积可信度在90%的情况下所得的工期和乐观时间估计的工期计算缓冲区时间,并以此制定关键链项目进度计划。案例分析表明,采用未确知有理数理论和乐观时间制定的关键链计划能够缓解工程项目不确定性因素的影响,与传统带有安全时间的进度计划相比节省工期,具有可行性。

Approach of setting project buffer based on the theory of unascertained rational number

The project schedule was made according to the ptimistic time,the intervals of mission duration in the mission list were quantified unascertainedly,the unascertained completion time and its reliability and cumulative reliability were obtained by use of the addition operation of unascertained rational numbers.The buffer time was calculated by the optimistic construction period and total project period when completion reliability was 90%,then the project schedule of the critical chain was established.The case study shows that the project schedule of the critical chain made by the theory of unascertained rational number and ptimistic time can relieve the effect of uncertainties and save the construction period,compared with the traditional schedule.