| 考虑载荷状态不确定性的柔性多状态开关可靠性模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘文霞,徐雅惠,李乔乔,许烽,王朝亮,裘鹏.考虑载荷状态不确定性的柔性多状态开关可靠性模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2019(6):1592-1602,1856. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘文霞 徐雅惠 李乔乔 许烽 王朝亮 裘鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 新能源电力系统国家重点实验室（华北电力大学）;国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0903100);国家电网公司科技项目(521104170043)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 为表征柔性多状态开关载荷特性对其可靠性的影响,该文提出一种改进的柔性多状态开关可靠性建模方法。首先考虑配电网源荷不确定性,采用蒙特卡洛模拟和优化潮流方法求解绝缘栅双极型晶体管(insulated gate bipolar transistor,IGBT)模块的电流载荷期望,建立计及随机电流载荷影响的IGBT等效可靠性模型;其次,分析子模块故障率与电压载荷的关系,基于桥臂均压策略,采用数学归纳法建立子模块相继故障下桥臂阀组可靠性动态变化模型;在此基础上修正单端模块化多电平换流器(modularmultilevelconverter,MMC)可靠性模型,并基于马尔可夫方法建立柔性多状态开关八状态可靠性模型。算例计算三端的IGBT、MMC以及整个装置可靠性指标,并与传统模型计算结果对比,验证模型的有效性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 柔性多状态开关 可靠性模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 电流载荷期望 电压载荷 八状态 |
Reliability Model of Flexible Multi-state Switch Considering the Uncertainty of Loading State |
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| LIU Wenxia,XU Yahui,LI Qiaoqiao,XU Feng,WANG Chaoliang,QIU Peng.Reliability Model of Flexible Multi-state Switch Considering the Uncertainty of Loading State[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2019(6):1592-1602,1856. |
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| Authors: | LIU Wenxia XU Yahui LI Qiaoqiao XU Feng WANG Chaoliang QIU Peng |
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| Affiliation: | (State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University),Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Research Institute,Hangzhou 310014,Zhejiang Province,China) |
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| Abstract: | LIU Wenxia;XU Yahui;LI Qiaoqiao;XU Feng;WANG Chaoliang;QIU Peng(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University),Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Research Institute,Hangzhou 310014,Zhejiang Province,China) |
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| Keywords: | flexible multi-state switch reliability model Monte Carlo simulation current loading expectation voltage loading eight-state |
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