近60年气候与土地利用变化对金沙江径流的影响

气候变化与土地利用变化会对流域降水径流过程产生影响,如何定量区分气候变化和土地利用变化对径流过程的影响,一直是国际水文水资源领域研究的热点和前沿问题。为了定量研究金沙江流域土地利用与气候变化的径流响应,构建了金沙江流域SWAT模型,采用情景模拟的方法,对土地利用变化与气候变化对径流的影响展开了研究。研究结果表明:(1)过去57 a金沙江流域实测降水量和气温的上升趋势显著,而径流量的变化趋势不明显;(2)相较于金沙江流域气温的显著升高,各种土地利用变化很小;(3)由于过去30 a间土地利用变化很小,因此其对径流量的影响微小;(4)气候变化是影响金沙江流域径流的主要因素,然而,取用水、水库建设等人类活动对径流的影响也较为显著。

Impacts of climate change and LUCC on runoff of Jinsha River Basin in recent 60 years

Climate change and Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) both have an impact on the rainfall-runoff processes. How to quantitatively distinguish the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot spot in the study of hydrology and water resources. In this research, the SWAT model is established for the Jinsha River Basin, and the scenarios simulation method is used to study the runoff response to climate change and LUCC. The results show that: (1) During the past 57 years, the annual average precipitation and temperature in the Jinsha River Basin both increase significantly while the variation trend of runoff is not obvious. (2) Compared with the significant increase of temperature in the Jinsha River Basin, the LUCC is very small. (3) Since the LUCC is very small in the past 30 years, it has little effect on runoff of the Jinsha River Basin. (4) Climate change is the main factor affecting basin runoff, in addition, the influences of human activities such as water supply and reservoir regulation are also obvious.