云南省汛期月度电量交易计划分解方法

针对日负荷和来水预测不确定性带来的中长期电量交易计划分解难以达到预控的进度目标，提出了汛期月度电量交易计划分解方法。利用日尺度负荷和径流预测结果，动态更新当日至月末的负荷和入库流量预测信息，采用当日的月累实发电量完成度与系统计划完成度偏差最大值最小的目标函数，生成参与发电计划调整的电站集合，滚动修正后续日发电计划。以云南省澜沧江、金沙江、怒江、红河以及伊洛瓦底江等干流流域约56座省调平衡水电站为研究对象，实例结果表明：该方法可满足当前云南电力交易中心的中长期交易电量分解到日的需求，有效解决了目前中期电量交易计划分解与梯级上下游水量平衡衔接不够紧密的实际难题。

Decomposition method of medium and long-term electricity trading plan in flood season of Yunnan Province

The decomposition of medium and long-term electricity trading plan is difficult to achieve the intended target due to uncertainty of daily load and inflow forecast. This paper presents a decomposition method of medium and long-term electricity trading plan in flood season. Based on the daily scale load and runoff forecast results, the load and inflow forecast information from the day to the end of the month are dynamically updated. Then, we construct a target function that is to minimize the maximum deviations of the completion degree between monthly accumulated power generation amount of the current day and the completion degree of system planned power generation amount. By adopting the target function, a power station set participating in power generation plan adjustment is generated, which can circularly correct the subsequent daily power generation plan. The practical behavior of the proposed method was demonstrated using 56 hydropower plants on the Lancang River, the Jinsha River, the Nujiang River, the Honghe River and the Yiluowadi River and so on. The results demonstrated that the proposed strategy could meet the demand of decomposing medium and long-term electricity trading plan of the Yunnan Power Exchange Center. It can effectively solve the practical problem that the decomposition of the current medium-term electricity trading plan is not closely connected with the upstream and downstream water balance of the cascade.