中国水资源与经济社会发展匹配度的动态分析

以中国六大地理分区2004～2015年间的水资源量为基础数据,以GDP、人口和耕地面积作为经济社会发展要素,构建和计算六大分区的水资源与经济社会发展要素之间的基尼系数。在此基础上,运用MannKendal检验法对六大地理分区的水资源与经济社会发展要素的基尼系数进行趋势分析。研究结果表明:(1)华北地区最强的水资源约束是水资源与GDP不匹配;(2)中南地区最强的水资源约束是水资源与耕地面积不匹配;(3)西北地区最强的水资源约束是水资源与人口不匹配。其中,中南地区水资源与经济社会发展要素不匹配程度较轻,华东地区、西北地区和西南地区的水资源与经济社会发展要素不匹配程度较重。另外,全国各分区的水资源与经济社会发展要素的基尼系数在2004～2015年间没有明显变化的趋势。

Dynamic analysis on matching degree of water resources and economic and social development in China

According to the water resources data of China's six geographic regions in 2004~2015, taking GDP, population and cultivated land area as elements of economic and social development, the Gini coefficients between water resources and economic and social development elements in the six regions were constructed and calculated. Thereafter, the trends of Gini coefficients were analyzed by Mann-Kendal test method. It was showed that (1) the strongest constraint of water resources in Northern China is the mismatch between water resources and GDP; (2) the strongest constraint of water resources in the Central and Southern China is the mismatch between water resources and cultivated land area; (3) the strongest constraint of water resources in Northwest China is the mismatch between water resources and population. Thereinto, the mismatch degree between water resources and economic and social development elements in the central and southern China is relatively small, and that in East China, Northwest China and Southwest China are big. Besides, the Gini coefficients of water resources and economic and social development elements of the six regions have no obvious change in 2004~2015.