岷江流域径流变化趋势及水文情势变异研究

为探究水文变异法(RVA)评估流域下游河流水文情势变异情况的准确性,选取岷江流域为研究区域,首先还原高场站天然径流过程,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、Kendall秩次相关检验等方法分析得出岷江流域径流有显著下降趋势;然后采用RVA法分析现有梯级水库运行对岷江河流水文情势的影响程度,得出高场站整体水文指标改变度为高度;最后模拟双江口水库投运情景,预测高场站水文情势变异情况。结果表明,高场站汛期来水相比现状将减少、枯期来水相比现状将有所增加。

Research on runoff variation trend and hydrological situation variation in Minjiang River Basin

This paper selects the Minjiang River Basin as the study area. The runoff process at Gaochang station is reduced first, and a significant downward trend in the runoff of the Minjiang River basin is concluded by using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Kendall rank test. Then the influence of existing cascade reservoirs on the hydrological situation of the Minjiang River is analyzed by RVA method. It is concluded that the change degree of the overall hydrological index of the Gaochang station is high. The variation of the hydrological situation at the Gaochang station is predicted further if the Shuangjiangkou reservoir is put into operation. It is concluded that compared with the present situation, water coming from the Gaochang station will reduce in flood season and increase in the dry season.