| 基于降水随机模拟的作物受旱概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨金华,付强,王斌,王敏,张可巍. 基于降水随机模拟的作物受旱概率分析[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2012, 0(11): 75-77 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨金华 付强 王斌 王敏 张可巍 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]绥化市水务局,黑龙江绥化152000 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用安达市56 a的实测降水数据,采用一阶马尔科夫链和伽玛分布函数相结合的随机模型模拟了10 000 a的逐日降水数据。依据模拟的降水数据计算有效降雨量,利用兼顾作物需水量和有效降水量的缺水率指标,分析安达市玉米和大豆遭受不同程度农业旱情的概率,为旱作区的作物受旱分析提供了一种新方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱作区 降水模拟 农业旱情 概率分析 |
Analysis of Crop Drought Probability Based on Stochastic Rainfall Simulation |
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| Affiliation: | YANG Jin - hua1,2, FU Qiang1 , WANG Bin1 , WANG Min1 , ZHAN Ke - wei2 ( 1. College of Water Conservancy and Building Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Har- bin 150030, China; 2. Suihua Water Resources Bureau, Suihua 152000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Using 56 years rainfall data of Anda, daily rainfall process of 10000 years was simulated by combination of Markov Chain and Gamma Distribution Function. Effective rainfall was calculated based on the precipitation data simulated. Using both index of crop water requirement and effective precipitation water rate, probability of corn and soybean in Anda suffering from different degrees of agricultural drought was analyzed, providing a new method for crop suffering from drought in dry farming region. |
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| Keywords: | dry farming region precipitation simulation agricultural drought probability analysis |
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