需水胁迫下的流域"三生"用水系统演化分析

生态用水和社会经济用水的竞争状况使得研究水资源短缺地区流域“三生”用水系统演化状况,以及有效进行流域“三生”用水系统的调控十分必要。从宏观角度出发,本文提出了构建流域主要指标为状态变量下的“三生”用水系统演化模拟模型,并利用模型进行演化趋势预测的分析思路。以蓟运河流域为例,构建了人口数量、人均GDP、生态系统指数以及生态用水比例为状态变量的“三生”用水系统演化模型。通过定量模拟,表明若不加以调控,该流域最终将走向生态失衡、经济停滞的恶性局面。由参数设置对调控方案进行分析,提出了提高生态用水比例、控制经济增长速度、提高用水效率和积极进行生态建设对策,为实现蓟运河流域的“三生”用水系统可持续发展服务。

Evolvement of ecological and economic water using system restrained by water requirement in River Basin

Ecosystem competes limited water resources with socio-economic system,which makes ecological and economic system under the risk of vicious evolvement in the region of shortage of water resources,therefore it is very necessary to regulate and control ecological water resources and socioeconomic water using system effectively.On the basis,the paper provided a route for establishing the evolvement model taken the main indicators as situation variables,and predicted its future trend according to this model.Taking Jiyunhe River Basin as a case study,the paper established its evolvement model consisting of four status variables,such as population,GDP per person,level of ecosystem,and ratio of ecological water use.Through the quantitive simulating,the consequence shown that this River Basin will be resulted in ecological non-balance and the economy will be stop without control.Through analysis,the paper has put forward the strategies including increasing ratio of ecological water use,limiting the increasing speed of GDP per person,raising efficiency of water use,and accelerating ecological construction.