射孔与测试联作管柱可靠性评价

射孔测试联作被广泛应用于油气井的完井与试油评价，对测射联作管柱进行合理设计和可靠性评估是提高探井、评价井或复杂井完井测试成功率的重要保证。根据典型的射孔测试联作管串模型，采用故障树分析方法，建立了射孔测试联作管柱失效故障树和行为可靠性概率评价模型，采用定性方法确定最小割集，利用定量分析方法计算顶事件概率。通过实例分析，获得了管串总体可靠度以及部件的可靠度和相对重要度，发现通过并联一些关键部件可以明显提高整个系统的可靠度，而提高施工人员业务素质和严把产品质量关是提高系统可靠度的关键，其结果对于提高现场施工设计水平和作业成功率具有指导意义

RELIABILITY EVALUATION FOR THE COMBINED OPERATION STRING OF PERFORATING AND TESTING

The combined operation of tubing conveyed perforating (TCP) and drill stem testing (DST) is widely used for evaluating the completion and testing of oil and gas wells. Thus, a reasonable design and reliability evaluation for DST/TCP string is an important guarantee to improve the success rate of exploration wells, evaluation wells or the completing test of complex wells. According to the typical TCP/ DST string model and by using the fault tree analysis, the model of fault tree and behavior reliability probability evaluation for TCP/ DST string was established, and the corresponding minimal cut sets was determined by the qualitative method and the top event probability was calculated by the quantitative analysis. Through the analysis of examples, the reliability of overall string as well as the reliability and the relative importance of components can be acquired. The paper found that by paralleling some key components, the reliability of overall system can be improved significantly and improving the professional quality of staff and guaranteeing the quality of products are the key factors to enhance the reliability of system. The results have the guiding significance for improving the level of field operation design and the success rate of operations.