基于完工概率修正的关键链法项目进度优化

提出一种基于完工概率修正关键链法的项目进度优化方法。建立模型时,通过以关键度修正完工概率将资源约束转化为工期约束;并计及项目活动是否已施工对成本信息可获取性的影响,完善了已完工/正在施工、未施工两类项目活动不同的工期-成本表达;同时保留关键链法中的缓冲区作为可调整工期约束。优化求解中,通过维持关键链不变,实现进度计划的重新分配调整。对资源变动或进度偏离的情况,本研究方法同样可求解形成新的进度优化计划。实例仿真结果验证了本研究方法的有效性,表明该方法能够更好地处理资源约束和进度偏离情况下的项目进度优化。

Project schedule optimization based on critical chain method with modified completion probability

A new method based on the critical chain method(CCM)with modified completion probability was proposed to optimize the project schedule. When building the optimization model, resource constraints were transformed into construction duration constraints by integrating criticality with completion probability, and duration-cost expression was improved according to the accomplishment state of the project activities which was divided into two kinds: accomplished/under-construction and not-yet-construction, considering the impact on cost information accessibility by the activity changes before and after the construction. Besides, CCM buffer was reserved as the adjustable duration constraints. To solve this model, critical chain was kept unchanged, so that the project activity durations could be redistributed to realize the adjustment. The method was proved also applicable in the case of resource change or schedule deviation, by which an optimal adjusted schedule was worked out. Simulations verified the effectiveness of the presented method, which showed that the method could realize project schedule optimization with resources restraints and progress deviation in a better way.