| 一种实用的超短期负荷预测曲线外推方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁恰,卢建刚,钱玉妹,张剑,廖怀庆. 一种实用的超短期负荷预测曲线外推方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2004, 28(16): 83-85 |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁恰 卢建刚 钱玉妹 张剑 廖怀庆 |
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| 作者单位： | 国电自动化研究院/南瑞集团公司,江苏省,南京市,210003;广东电力调度中心,广东省,广州市,510600;江苏省电力公司电网调度所,江苏省,南京市,210024;上海电力公司,上海市,200025 |
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| 摘 要： | 超短期负荷预测对电网功率平衡控制具有重要作用。文中针对超短期负荷预测特点，提出一种基于曲线模式分析的曲线外推方法，并讨论了历史坏数据处理以及对当前负荷水平的特殊处理等实用性问题，以保证预测结果的稳定性。通过对几个实际系统的应用结果表明，该方法速度快，精度高，运行稳定可靠，同时具有较强的适应性。
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| 关 键 词： | 超短期负荷预测 能量管理系统 实时 |
| 收稿时间： | 1900-01-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 1900-01-01 |
A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR ULTRA-SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING |
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| Ding Qia,Lu Jiangang,Qian Yumei,Zhang J ian,Liao Huaiqing. A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR ULTRA-SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2004, 28(16): 83-85 |
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| Authors: | Ding Qia Lu Jiangang Qian Yumei Zhang J ian Liao Huaiqing |
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| Abstract: | The ultra-short term load forecasting is important in the power balancing control of a power network. In view of the characteristics of the ultra-short term load forecasting, a practical method for curve extrapolation based on the pattern of the daily load curve is proposed. Some important aspects of bad data processing and the special processing of the current load level are discussed, by which stable forecasting results can be ensured. Several applications in an actual system show that this method is fast, accurate, stable and highly adaptable. |
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| Keywords: | ultra-short term load forecasting energy management system (EMS) real-time |
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