基于趋势分析的电力系统态势感知方法

电力系统态势感知是系统安全防御的重要环节。针对目前电力系统态势感知方法无法定量描述当前系统安全距离以及未来系统演化趋势速度的问题，提出基于趋势分析的电力系统态势感知方法。基于趋势分析，提出新型态势感知框架；在信息获取的基础上，引入N-1静态安全距离模型评估系统当前状态和未来状态的安全等级；通过将安全距离模型与定性趋势分析相结合，自动捕捉未来变化状态下运行点的移动方向和趋势变化率，从而对系统安全进行态势感知。经过IEEE 118母线系统和实际电力系统的应用结果表明，文章所提方法可以有效地帮助系统运行人员监测、预测和预防潜在问题。

A New Situational Awareness Method Based on Trend Analysis of Power System

SituationalSawareness plays a main role in the power security defence system. Aiming at the problem that the current power system situational awareness method can not describe the safety distance quantitatively and the evolution speed of the future system, a trend-based power system situational awareness method is proposed. First, based on trend analysis, a new situational awareness framework is proposed; Then, on the basis of information acquisition, the N-1 static safety distance model is introduced to evaluate the security level of the current and future state of the system; By combining the safety distance model with qualitative trend analysis, the moving direction and trend change rate of the operating point in the future change state are automatically captured, so as to improve the ability of the security situational awareness. The application results of IEEE 118 bus system and actual power system show that the proposed method can effectively help system operators to monitor, predict and prevent potential problems.