| 基于混沌理论的短期负荷局域多步预测法 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑永康,陈维荣,蒋刚,郝文斌. 基于混沌理论的短期负荷局域多步预测法[J]. 电力系统及其自动化学报, 2007, 19(4): 76-79 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑永康 陈维荣 蒋刚 郝文斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学电气工程学院,成都,610031;西南交通大学电气工程学院,成都,610031;西南交通大学电气工程学院,成都,610031;西南交通大学电气工程学院,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了目前对短期负荷时间序列进行预测的加权一阶局域一步预测方法,针对其用于多步预测会产生累计误差并且计算量很大的缺点,提出了将加权一阶局域法多步预测模型用于短期负荷预测。在分析电力系统历史短期负荷时间序列混沌特性的基础上,通过将多步预测模型应用于负荷的预测,验证了该方法相对于一步预测法在计算速度和精度方面都有明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 混沌 短期负荷预测 相空间重构 局域预测法 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8930（2007）04-0760-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-052007-08-25 |
Local-region Multi-steps Load Forecasting Model Based on Chaotic Theory |
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| ZHENG Yong-kang,CHEN Wei-rong,JIANG Gang,HAO Wen-bin. Local-region Multi-steps Load Forecasting Model Based on Chaotic Theory[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA, 2007, 19(4): 76-79 |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Yong-kang CHEN Wei-rong JIANG Gang HAO Wen-bin |
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| Affiliation: | School of Electrical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031, China |
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| Abstract: | The weighted first-order local-region method is a single-step method for short-term load forecasting which will cause heavy computation burden as well as cumulative error in multi-step short-term load forecasting.A local-region multi-step short-term load forecasting model based on phase space reconstruction is presented in the paper.Based on the analysis of the chaotic characteristics of power load time series,the multi-step forecasting model is applied in short-term load forecasting,the results of which demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to the single-step method in calculation speed and accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | chaos short-term load forecasting phase space reconstruction local prediction method |
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