基于区间数和价值理论的配电网可靠性评估

针对配电系统可靠性原始参数不确定对可靠性指标的影响,引入区间数与区间运算,给出了可靠性指标的区间计算形式。在算法上,通过网络等值原理将复杂配电系统逐步等值为只有一条馈线的简单配电系统,进而结合等效逻辑模型和故障模式后果分析法(FMEA)评估系统的各项可靠性指标,比直接利用FMEA法大大提高了效率。最后,将用区间数表示的可靠性指标引入可靠性评估方面,使用成本/效益比的概念作为电网改造方案可行性和最优性的判据。

Reliability evaluation of distribution system based on interval data and value

Against the influence of uncertainty of all of the parameters to reliability indexes,this paper introduces interval numbers and interval operation to evaluation and provides interval formulations of reliability indices.Using equivalent principle turns the complicated distribution system into a simple one step by step,and then obtains the reliability indexes,which is much more efficient than employing FMEA directly.Finally,this paper presents the interval indexes to the reliability evaluation.At the same time,the cost /benefit ratio for the criterion of feasibility and optimization is put forward.This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of the Education Department of Henan Province(No.2004601067).