影响水利工程投资变化的实证分析

影响水利工程投资变化的因素可以分为市场因素、经济因素、设计因素、工期因素、不可预见因素等。选用南水北调东线江苏某段工程的投资变化数据,运用多元方差分析的方法就影响因素对不同工程投资变化的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,影响因素对不同工程的投资变化影响存在显著性差异,工程规模越大影响因素的影响程度就越大。据此提出在水利工程投资控制中必须优化价差管理方法,加强设计管理,减少设计变更,建立“静态投资、动态管理”体系来实现对工程投资变化的控制。

Case study on factors influencing variation of investment in water conservancy projects

Factors influencing the variation of investment in water conservancy projects can be divided into the market factor,the economic factor,the design factor,the construction schedule factor,and some unpredictable factors.With the data of investment variation for Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Transfer East Route Project,a case study is performed of the influences of the above factors on different projects by means of multivariate variance analysis.The result shows that the influences of the factors on the variation of investment are of great differences in different projects,the larger the scale of projects,the greater the influence of each factor.Therefore,it is necessary to optimize the price difference management,to strengthen design management,to reduce the design alternation,and to establish a system of "static investment and dynamic management",so that the variation of investment in projects can be effectively controlled.