渭河水量应急调度方法及实例分析研究

在全球气候变化和人类活动的共同作用下,区域性极端天气事件发生的概率增加,洪水、干旱等各类应急问题日益凸显。针对目前国内水量应急调度的实际和机制，在应急调度过程中引入人工智能领域的事例推理技术，按照事例推理理论方法原理，构建了事例库，探讨了事例的检索方法，应用遗传算法计算了各属性的权重。最后，将基于事例推理技术应用于渭河流域水量应急调度。结果表明，基于事例推理方法的水量应急调度具有快速性、科学性和可操作性，对于突发和应急事件，能够迅速确定应对方案，在未来水资源管理和调度中具有推广应用价值。

Emergent water dispatch in the Weihe River by Case-based reasoning method

Under the synergetic effects of global climate change and human activity, the probability of regional extreme weather events increase, and the emergency issues such as floods and droughts have become more prominent. In view of the actual state and mechanisms of water emergent dispatch, a case-base reasoning technology in artificial intelligence field was introduced and applied to the emergent events dispatch and decision in this paper. According to the principle of case-base reasoning, the case database was build, the methods of case retrieval were discussed, and the genetic algorithm was applied to calculate the weight of case characteristic property. Finally, the case-base reasoning technology applying to emergent water dispatch of Weihe River valley is discussed. The results indicate that the case-base reasoning method is scientific, operational and promising for water emergent dispatch and decision.