| 基于改进灰色模型的水资源预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵晓慎,吴海波,王文川. 基于改进灰色模型的水资源预测[J]. 人民黄河, 2011, 33(10). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2011.10.017 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵晓慎 吴海波 王文川 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电学院,河南郑州,450011 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目(2010B570002); 华北水利水电学院高层次人才科研启动项目(200821) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高灰色模型GM(1,1)对用水量预测的精度,通过对传统灰色模型的残差序列进行改进,提出了一种新的灰色改进预测模型。将其应用于城市居民生活用水量预测中,结果表明:与传统GM(1,1)模型预测值相比,改进GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值拟合效果更好。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源 生活用水 模型改进 灰色模型 |
Water Resources Forecasting Based on Improved Gray Model |
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| ZHAO Xiao-shen,WU Hai-bo,WANG Wen-chuan. Water Resources Forecasting Based on Improved Gray Model[J]. Yellow River, 2011, 33(10). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2011.10.017 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xiao-shen WU Hai-bo WANG Wen-chuan |
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| Affiliation: | ZHAO Xiao-shen,WU Hai-bo,WANG Wen-chuan(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the precision of gray model for water resources forecasting,an improved grey model is proposed by improving the residual series of traditional model.The forecasting results of urban domestic water consumption show that the improved GM(1,1) has better fitting effect to actual value than that of traditional GM(1,1). |
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| Keywords: | water resources domestic water model improvement grey model |
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