长江三峡工程库首及周缘地区水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估研究

通过统计和分析已建成蓄水的水库及其周缘地区不同位置的诱震组合环境条件及诱震活动的结果，建立了定量预测与评估水库及其周缘地区各不同位置的诱发不同活动水平地震危险性的概率模型。运用所建模型对长江三峡工程库首及其周缘地区诱发地震的危险性进行了定量计算，并以概率等值线分布图的形式对预测和评估结果进行了表述。结果表明，长江三峡工程库首及其周缘地区各不同位置发生诱发地震的危险性是不均匀的，绝大部分位置发生诱发地震的概率较小，但少数地区也有可能诱发频繁的中、小地震甚至中强破坏性地震。

Quantitative Prediction and Assessment of Induced Seismicity Risk in Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir Head Area and its Neighboring Area

Based on the analyses of the environmental conditions of water induced earthquake and their induced seismicity results in reservoir area and its surrounding region, this paper proposes a model to quantitatively predict and assess the water induced seismimity risk in reservoir area. We divide the Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir and its neighboring area into 1330 units, and obtain the entire environmental conditions of each unit. By using the proposed model, the induced seismicity at different risk level of each unit are predicted and assessed, and the results are described with contours of induced seismic risk probability. It's shown that the induced seismicity risks of Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir and its neighboring area are not uniform. The induced earthquake risks of most units are very low, but in the units between Jiuwanxi and Xiangxi, units between Shuitianba and Zigui, units of southern Jieya and units near Guojiaba and Guangzhuangping, it's possible to frequently induce small earthquakes, and in some units near Xiangxi, Jieya, Guojiaba and Guangzhuangping, there are probabilities to induce moderately strong earthquakes.