China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, China;2. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA;3. Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, South Korea;1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, Beijing 100084, China;4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;5. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;6. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;7. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway;8. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China;1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy & Environment Directorate, Richland, Washington 99354, USA;2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA;3. Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, China;1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, MD 20740, USA;2. Graduate School of Green Growth, KAIST Business School, Seoul, Republic of Korea;1. Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK;1. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China;2. Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China;3. Center for Climate Change and Environmental Policy, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, 100012, China;4. Environmental Protection and Energy-saving Technology Research Center, China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, 100088, China;5. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang, 050018, China |
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| Abstract: | Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products. |
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| Keywords: | Integrated assessment Transport sector GCAM-China |
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