The effects of environmental regulation and technical progress on CO2 Kuznets curve: An evidence from China

Based on environmental Kuznets curve theory, a panel data model which takes environmental regulation and technical progress as its moderating factors was developed to analyse the institutional and technical factors that affect the path of low-carbon economic development. The results indicated that there was a CO₂ emission Kuznets curve seen in China. Environmental regulation had a significant moderating effect on the curve, and the inflection of CO₂ emissions could come substantially earlier under stricter environmental regulation. Meanwhile, the impact of technical progress on the low-carbon economic development path had a longer hysteresis effect but restrained CO₂ emission during its increasing stage and accelerated its downward trend during the decreasing stage which was conducive to emission reduction. Strict environmental regulation could force the high-carbon emitting industries to transfer from the eastern regions to the central or the western regions of China, which would make the CO₂ Kuznets curve higher in its increasing stage and lower in its decreasing stage than that under looser regulation. Furthermore, energy efficiency, energy structure, and industrial structure exerted a significant direct impact on CO₂ emissions; we should consider the above factors as essential in the quest for low-carbon economic development.