基于灰色系统理论的我国钢铁产业与GDP关系研究

在收集2000～2017年我国GDP和钢铁产业共10个指标数值的基础上, 运用灰色系统软件, 计算出了4种灰色关联度矩阵。经分析, 找出了最(准)优系统特征行为序列、准优和次准优相关因素序列、最差和次最差相关因素序列。对GDP和钢产量进行延迟后的灰色关联度分析, 找到了延迟的年份。运用灰色预测软件GM(1, 1), 对9个指标2018～2021年的发展进行了预测, 误差很低, 反映了各个指标的增长态势:GDP、GDP增长率和铁矿石进口量呈现高速增长的态势; 钢产量、钢消费量、钢进口量、钢自给率将呈现平稳增长的态势; 而铁矿石产量、铁矿石自给率则将持续下降。

Discussion of Relationship Between China's Iron & Steel Industry and GDP Based on Grey System Theory

With the collected 10 indicators for China's GDP and steel & iron industry in the period of 2000~2017, four kinds of gray correlation matrices were computed by using the software of Grey Modeling. Based on the analysis, the characteristic behavior sequence for the most (quasi)-perfect system, sequence of quasi-perfect correlation factors and sub-quasiperfect correlation factors, as well as sequence of the worst and next to the worst correlation factors were all obtained. A grey correlational analysis was made for steel output and lagging GDP growth, and the specific year with such lagging phenomena was also found. With GM(1,1), a Gray Forecast Model, the variation of nine indicators in the period of 2018~2021 was forecasted with a small margin of error, presenting a rapid growing trend for GDP, GDP growth rate and iron ore imports, a steady growth in steel output, steel consumption and imports, as well as steel self-sufficiency rate, but a continuing decline of iron ore output and iron ore self-sufficiency rate.