建设工程进度预警及其模型构建的研究与应用

为使建设工程进度处于受控状态，需要有效的技术方法。通过进度影响因素、进度状态的评价和判断，可以掌握进度情况和发展趋势。根据预警理论与方法，结合工程进度管理的特征，研究提出进度预警的一般流程，利用综合指标法，选取工期进度和投资进度两个指标建立工程进度预警模型，作为进度跟踪控制的一种预警工具。结合上海虹桥综合交通枢纽工程的实际案例，对进度预警模型进行了验证，取得满意的结果。

Progress Early-Warning Model and its Application for Construction Projects

Some effective technical methods are needed to control the progress of construction projects. The situation and trend of the progress can be known through process factors, and the evaluation and judgment of process situation. According to the theory and method of early-warning，this paper proposed the general process for progress early warning. An early-warning model for schedule control of construction projects was established by selecting two indicators of project progress and investment progress based on comprehensive index method. The case study of Shanghai Hongqiao integrated transport hub was conducted to validate the model.