基于模糊层次分析法的代建单位风险评价研究

“代建制”是我国近十年来对政府投资项目传统管理体制改革的产物，具有突出的先进性，能够有效提高政府投资项目的管理水平和投资效益。文章立足于代建单位，分析了代建单位风险评价的意义，利用风险分解结构法对代建单位风险进行了识别，并提出了一种基于层次分析法、Delphi法和模糊数学理论相结合的风险评价方法，建立了代建单位风险因素集和评语集，确定出各因素权重和评判矩阵，构建出模糊评价模型。论文以江苏省某代建项目为例验证了该风险评价方法；评价结果具有参考价值，可以推广使用。

Risk Assessment of Agent Construction Enterprises Based on the Fuzzy AHP Method

The concept of agent construction system is the product of the reform to traditional management system of government investment projects over the past decade in China. It has the outstanding advancement which improves the level of project management and the benefit of the government investments. The significance of the risk assessment for the agent construction enterprises was analyzed. The risk was identified using the risk breakdown structure method. A risk assessment method was proposed integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method，Delphi method and fuzzy mathematics theory. The risk factors set and assessment set were established to determine the weight and the assessment matrix of each factor，and the fuzzy assessment model was constructed. The risk assessment method was validated through an agent construction project in Jiangsu Province. The application results show that the risk assessment method can be used with easy operation and the assessment results have reference values.