RECONSTRUCTION OF SYNTHETIC METEOROLOGICAL SEQUENCES BY USING MARKOV TRANSITION MATRIX FOR SOLAR THERMAL SIMULATION

A Markov Transition Matrix (MTM) approach used to reconstruct the synthetic sequences of both hourly global radiation and hourly ambient temperature, which has a strong effect on the output of solar thermal systems and has not been taken into account. The result shows that the main statistical features of natural sequences, i.e., probability density function, sequential characteristics and the variance of the fluctuations, can be simulated by Markov transition-matrix obtained from recorded meteorological data. Its quality depends upon data record number in order that the synthetic sequences match long-term statistic characters of natural sequences. Comparisons have been made among different record number and the minimum number of records is sought. It is shown that the minimum data to generate hourly MTM is 12,410 data number for global radiation and 43,800 data for ambient temperature.