Prediction of river discharge and surface water quality using an integrated geographical information system approach

A methodology is developed for the prediction of river discharge and surface water quality (indexed by nitrogen loading) of a predominantly rural catchment using simple models in an integrated Geographical Information System (GIS). River discharge is predicted using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff Curve Number model, and surface water quality by the export coefficient model. Main input variable to these models is information on land-use along with ancillary information such as soils. Land-use is an important parameter that affects both discharge and water quality, and it can be derived from classification of remotely sensed images. Unlike conventional models, the models employed here do not require large amounts of data on several hydro-meteorological variables. The models are applied to a rural catchment in eastern England where major land-use changes have occurred in the recent past. Historical land-use data are derived from a variety of sources including maps, aerial photographs and remotely sensed satellite images for various dates ranging from 1931 to 1989. A GIS is a valuable means to enable large amounts of spatial data to be integrated, and to facilitate data manipulation for the specific application of the models. Results are validated using observed runoff and water quality records, and it is shown that the model predictions are of acceptable accuracy. This study demonstrated an application of a GIS to employ simple models to predict river discharge and water quality.