我国普通高等学校生源规模预测及高职院校发展趋势分析

利用灰色预测模型（GM（1，1）模型）预测了中国未来十年普通高等学校生源规模，通过关联度检验和残差、后验差检验证明了GM（1，1）模型的有效性，结果显示未来十年生源规模下降迅速，十年后较现在下降近9％，给普通高校尤其是高职院校的发展提出了严峻的挑战，给出了一些高职院校发展的对策建议。

Forecast of College Student Source Scale in China and Trends Analysis of Vocational Colleges

This article predicts the student scale of China＇s colleges in the next decade by using gray forecast model. Association testing, posterior error testing and residual testing prove the effectiveness of GM （ 1,1 ） model, which shows that over the next decade the student scale of China＇s colleges will decline rapidly by about 9% , posing serious challenges to colleges and universities, especially to vo- cational colleges. Based on this fact, the paper presents some countermeasures for the development of vocational colleges.