雨量预报方法的评价模型

建立的雨量预报方法预报水平评价模型,包括预报方法的准确性评价模型和考虑公众感受的评分模型。准确性评价模型包括雨量预报方法的预报水平的整体评价指标,以及针对不同预报时段、预报等级和站点的分项评价指标,公众感受评分模型基于公众对预报偏差的心理感受特点对预报水平给出评分。通过降雨空间插值方法由网格点的雨量预报值得到观测站点的预报值,应用所建立的指标对给定区域的91个站点41 d的雨量实测值和两种预报方法的预报值进行了分析和评价。

Evaluation model of precipitation forecasting methods

An evaluation model of precipitation forecasting methods is proposed.This model includes the forecasting veracity evaluation model and the score evaluation model in consideration of public acceptance.The former includes the integral evaluation index and the sub-entry indexes of different forecasting periods,grades and precipitation stations;the latter is set up on the public psychological acceptance about the forecasting errors.The forecasting value of each precipitation station is derived from the forecast...