| 基于历史费用的鱼雷经济寿命预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁庆卫,宋保维,贾跃.基于历史费用的鱼雷经济寿命预测[J].兵工学报,2006,27(5):865-868. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁庆卫 宋保维 贾跃 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北工业大学,航海学院,陕西,西安,710072;西北工业大学,航海学院,陕西,西安,710072;西北工业大学,航海学院,陕西,西安,710072 |
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| 基金项目： | 西北工业大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 鱼雷经济寿命由鱼雷年平均费用最小的年份来确定，而鱼雷总的年平均费用与鱼雷购置费和使用维护费用有关。利用鱼雷使用维护费用近似服从指数规律的经验，对灰色系统理论的GM(1，1)模型进行改进，将原始数据作为累加序列进行建模，同时，采用卡尔曼序贯滤波算法减弱数据序列的随机性。结合实例对鱼雷使用维护费用进行预测，由此可预测鱼雷的经济寿命。结果表明，这种方法能达到令人满意的精度，具有实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统评估与可行性分析 鱼雷 年平均费用 使用维护费用 经济寿命 灰色模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1093（2006）05-0865-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-09-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-09-08 |
The Forecast of Economic Life for Torpedo Based on Historical Cost |
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| LIANG Qing-wei,SONG Bao-wei,JIA Yue.The Forecast of Economic Life for Torpedo Based on Historical Cost[J].Acta Armamentarii,2006,27(5):865-868. |
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| Authors: | LIANG Qing-wei SONG Bao-wei JIA Yue |
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| Affiliation: | College of Marine, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, Shaanxi, China |
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| Abstract: | The economic life of torpedo is determined by the year when the average annual cost is the lowest.And,the average annual cost relates to the purchasing cost and the use-maintenance cost.A GM(1,1) model of the grey system theory was modified by using the experience of exponential use-maintenance cost.The original data were used as accumulated sequence to set up the use-maintenance cost model that can be used to forecast the torpedo economic life.And,a Kalman sequential algorithm was adopted to weaken the randomness of the data sequence.Forecast results show that this method is satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | systematic evaluation and feasibility analysis torpedo average cost per annum use-maintenance cost economic life grey model |
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