兖州市水资源承载力多情景评价研究

 采用改进的 TOPSIS 法和模糊综合评价法，选取人均供水量、水资源利用率、生活用水定额、万元工业产值需水量、供水模数、需水模数、生态环境用水率 7 项评价指标，对兖州市 2007-2030 年 3 种不同情景下的水资源承载能力进行了分析、评价和预测。结果表明：兖州市现状年（ 2007 年）水资源已经有相当程度的开发利用，但仍有一定的开发潜力；在未来 20 多年中，随着经济社会的进一步发展，兖州市的水资源承载能力将不断变弱，但仍然可以维持在可承载的范围内，水资源将逐渐成为制约兖州市经济社会发展的主要因素之一；大力开源、建设节水型社会及合理配置水资源将是提高水资源承载力的主要措施。

Multiple Scenarios Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yanzhou City

On the basis of improved TOPSIS model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, per capita water supply, utilization rate of water resource, live use water quota, water requirement per ten thousand yuan output value, water supply module, water requirement module, and water ratio and utilization rate of water resources for ecological environment were adopted as the evaluation indices, water resources carrying capacity under three different scenarios was predicted and evaluated from 2007-2030 for Yanzhou City. The ...