基于灰色关联度改进的管道相对风险分析方法

管道风险分析对于控制管道风险、确保管道正常运行具有重要作用。常用的评分法是一种比较完整和系统的管道相对风险分析方法,但它将造成管道事故的4大类影响因素具有相同的权重,平均分配400分的总评分,不能反映不同的因素对管道风险不同的影响程度。采用灰色绝对关联度分析方法,通过计算不同因素造成事故频率与事故后果的关联度,确定各种事故因素的恰当权重,并以此对肯特法作适当的改进,对其评分结果进行修正,使最终的指数和能更真实地反映出管道的风险。

Degree of grey incidence based improvement on Kent's pipeline risk scoring method

The risk management of pipelines is very important for controlling pipeline risks and safe operating.W Kent Muhlbauer's scoring method for pipelines is a systemic risk analysis method,but it has a major deficiency that the four factors causing pipeline failures are equally assigned 100 scores and can not reflect the different importance for pipeline risk.A new method is proposed to improve the scoring method by assigning weights to the four factors.The weights are calculated according to the absolute degree of grey incidence between accident frequencies caused by the factors and accident consequences.