基于Bayes统计的圆钢管混凝土短柱受压承载力分析

利用贝叶斯统计理论,建立了圆钢管混凝土短柱基于《钢管混凝土结构技术规范》(GB 50396-2014)的概率抗压模型.采用无信息先验分布,结合国内外170组钢管混凝土柱抗压试验数据,利用贝叶斯参数剔除法对模型进行简化,得到简化概率抗压模型.研究表明:简化概率抗压模型较规范模型计算压力值更接近试验结果,能合理的进行圆钢管混凝土短柱受压承载力预测及设计.

Analysis of Compressive Strength for Concrete Filled Circular Steel Tubular Column Based on Bayes

Probabilistic model for calculating the compressive strength of concrete filled circular steel tubular column was established based on Chinese code (GB 50396-2014) by Bayesian theory.Two types of information, the prior model that compressive capacity calculation formula in Chinese code, and the prior information that the collected 170 test results, were synthesized into Bayesian statistical inference and Bayesian posterior estimate for unknown parameters based on non-information prior distribution.It shows that the Bayesian probabilistic model based on GB 50396-2014 can be conveniently used for the calculation of the compressive capacity for concrete filled circular steel tubular column, and the calculated results are proved good by 170 test data.