基于共轭先验分布的圆钢管混凝土短柱抗压概率模型分析

以圆钢管混凝土轴心受压短柱为研究对象,基于贝叶斯动态信息更新思路建立其共轭概率抗压计算模型.选取《钢管混凝土结构技术规范》(GB 50396-2014)、美国钢结构协会规范AISC360-2010以及日本建筑协会规范AIJ-SRC01中圆钢管混凝土短柱受压承载力计算公式作为先验模型,收集国内外有关圆钢管混凝土短柱抗压试验数据为样本信息,选取共轭先验分布为参数的先验分布,应用贝叶斯方法综合先验模型、试验数据两类信息对参数先验分布进行更新,得参数后验分布,从而达到对先验模型的修正,修正后模型即为圆钢管混凝土短柱受压承载力的概率模型.研究表明:基于贝叶斯共轭概率模型得到的圆钢管混凝土短柱受压承载力与试验结果吻合良好,较规范建议设计方法的计算结果更接近试验值.简化模型能合理的进行圆钢管混凝土短柱受压承载力预测及设计.

Probabilistic Compressive Strength Model for Concrete Filled Circular Steel Tubular Column Based on Conjugate Prior Distribution

Based on existing research and the application of Bayesian multivariate linear parameter estimation method , probabilistic models for calculating the compressive strength of concrete filled circular steel tubular column are established based on the Bayesian theory .Two types of information , the prior models that compressive capacity calculation formulas in Chinese code GB 50396-2014 , code AISC360-2010 and code AIJ-SRC01 , and the prior information that the collected 170 test results , are synthesized into Bayesian statistical inference and Bayesian posterior estimate for unknown parameters based on conjugate prior distribution .It shows that the compressive strengths obtained by the simplified models based on Bayesian are in good agreement with test results , and they are closer to the experimental values than the results designed by models in code .The simplified models can be used in the compressive strength prediction and design for concrete filled circular steel tubular column .