中国水-能源-粮食关联系统协同安全评价

为保障我国水-能源-粮食关联系统安全，运用压力-状态-响应模型对我国2007—2016年水-能源-粮食关联系统进行协同安全性评价。选取16个代表性指标，构建我国水-能源-粮食关联系统协同安全评价指标体系及评价模型，利用层次分析法确定各指标权重，根据2007—2016年全国及各省区相关指标统计数据，对全国及不同地区水-能源-粮食关联系统进行协同安全评价。结果表明:近10年全国水-能源-粮食关联系统的协同安全度总体呈波动上升趋势。北京、天津和上海等省级行政区水-能源-粮食关联系统综合协同安全度较高；而宁夏、新疆和重庆等地区综合协同安全度低；大部分省区关联系统综合协同安全度水平2012—2016年高于2007—2011年。

Security evaluation of water-energy-food nexus system in China

In order to guarantee the safety of China’s water, energy and food, the pressure state response model was applied to evaluate the safety of water-energy-food nexus system in China from 2007 to 2016. 16 representative indexes were selected to construct a collaborative safety evaluation index system of water-energy-food nexus. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the index weight. Based on data during 2007－2016, the safety of water-energy-food nexus system was assessed at national and provincial levels. The results show that the collaborative security degree of water-energy-food nexus system in China has been rising in the past 10 years. The comprehensive collaborative security degree of water-energy-food nexus system in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai is higher than others. However, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Chongqing have low degree of collaborative cooperative security due to shortage in water resources. The level of comprehensive collaborative security in most provinces is higher during 2012－2016 than that in 2007－2011.