泉州市城镇居民综合生活需水预测方法研究

本文采用定额法、趋势分析法、年均增长率法、回归分析法等需水预测常用的方法,对泉州市城镇居民综合生活用水进行预测分析,经多种预测结果比较得出泉州市2030年城镇居民综合生活需水量为8.62亿m 3。其中定额法、回归分析法预测结果较好,趋势分析法和年均增长率法更常用于经济社会发展指标的预测。随着中国城镇化水平不断推进,居民综合生活用水量的影响愈加多元化、横向化,建立多元回归预测分析模型来预测用水量是很好的选择,该研究可为其他城市预测规划水平年居民生活用水量提供借鉴。

Research on prediction method of comprehensive living water demand for urban residents in Quanzhou

In this paper,through quota method,trend analysis method,average annual growth rate method,regression analysis method and other commonly used water demand forecasting methods,the comprehensive domestic water demand of urban residents in Quanzhou is forecasted and analyzed,and the comprehensive domestic water demand of urban residents in Quanzhou in 2030 is 862 million m 3 through comparison of various forecasting results.Among them,quota method and regression analysis method have better prediction results.Trend analysis method and average annual growth rate method are more commonly used in the prediction of economic and social development indicators.As Chinese urbanization level continues to advance,the impact of residents’comprehensive domestic water consumption has become more diversified and horizontal.It is a good choice to establish a multiple regression prediction analysis model to predict water consumption.The discussion in this paper can provide reference for other cities to predict residents’domestic water consumption in the planning level year.