黄河下游流量变化与工程出险关系分析

河道整治工程出险受到多种因素的影响，其中河流流量变化是最重要的因素之一。本文利用黄河下游河南段河道整治工程出险资料，统计分析了工程出险与河流流量之间的关系，并且引入了正则化分析方法，使能在同样发生概率条件下比较不同流量的河道整治工程出险概率。分析结果表明，有近32％的险情发生在1 000～2000m3／s流量级；有近70％的险情发生在500～3000m3／s流量级。表面上看，流量大于3000m3／s时，发生险情的比率反而较低。这主要是由于黄河下游发生大流量的概率较低的缘故。采用正则化处理，即在同样发生概率的条件下比较发现，随河流流量的增大，整治工程出险次数和出险级别均大幅增加。

Analysis on probability of dyke damage and endangerment in Lower Yellow River

The probability of dyke damage and endangerment in the Lower Yellow River is analyzed as a function of flow discharge based on the data of river section in the Henan Province in the period 1984 -1997. The result shows that about 32% of dyke damage and endangerment occur to the discharge in the range from 1 000m^3/s to 2 000m^3/s, and 70% - 80% occur to the discharge in the range from 500m^3/s to 3 000m^3/s. Less probability of dyke damage and endangerment happen to the discharges larger than 3 000m^3/s because of the low frequency of large discharge in this period. The further analysis by using the standardization method shows that under the condition of the same probability of occurrence the number and grade of dyke damage and endangerment significantly increases following the increase of discharge.